You have a bag containing 13 red marbles and 7 blue marbles. You draw marbles one at a time without replacement. For each red marble you draw, you win $5. However, if you draw a blue marble, the game ends immediately and you lose all your winnings. What is the optimal strategy for deciding when to stop drawing and cash out?
We will calculate and compare the expected value of pulling out a marble and the current balance. At the beginning, the bank balance is $0. The expected value of pulling out a marble is given by: \[ \frac{13}{20} * $5 + \frac{7}{20} * $0 = $3.25 \] Since \( $3.25 \) is greater than the bank balance (\( $0 )\), it is profitable to pull out a marble.
Now, we have a balance of \( $5 \). The expected value of pulling out another marble is given by: \[ \frac{12}{19} * $10 + \frac{7}{19} * $0 \approx $6.32 \] Once again, since \( \approx $6.32 \) is greater than the bank balance (\( $5 )\), it is profitable to pull out a marble.
The expected value of pulling out another marble is given by; \[ \frac{11}{18} * $15 + \frac{7}{18} * $0 \approx $9.17 \] Since \( $9.17 \) is less than the bank balance (\( $10 )\), it is not profitable to pull out a marble.
Therefore, the optimal strategy is to pull out a maximum of 2 marbles and then quit.